Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies
研究俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致欧盟天然气供应中断对奥地利的经济冲击，评估供需侧缓解措施的效果，发现替代进口、储气管理和燃料转换是关键短期政策杠杆。
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input–output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.