Technology Adoption, Mortality and Population Dynamics
构建了一个量化理论，强调个体通过采纳更好的健康技术来降低死亡率，技术扩散的曲线形状决定了死亡率下降的速度，解释了西欧死亡率、预期寿命和人口动态的历史趋势。
Abstract We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics, emphasising individuals’ decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Expanded use of this technology reduces the cost of adoption and confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike Malthusian theories based solely on income, ours is consistent with the observed disconnect between mortality and income. Unlike Beckerian theories of fertility, ours accounts for the observed acceleration in population.