Managerial Overextrapolation: Who and When
研究发现企业管理者在发布盈利指引时会过度外推过去的盈利表现，这种偏差在控制预期管理、盈余管理和过度自信后依然存在，且受盈利持续性、趋势、显著性和波动性等因素影响。经验和管理层价值观多样性可缓解该偏差，但人口多样性无效。利用2017年减税与就业法案提供了因果证据。
Corporate managers overextrapolate past earnings in their earnings guidance, and this behavior is robust after including extensive controls, such as expectation management, earnings management, and overconfidence. The degree of overextrapolation is driven by the persistence of the underlying earnings process and other factors that affect representativeness heuristics, including trend, salience, and volatility. Experience and value diversity among corporate managers help mitigate this bias, whereas demographic diversity does not. Using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, we provide causal evidence that managers overextrapolate past earnings. This paper was accepted by Camelia Kuhnen, finance. Supplemental Material: The internet appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00901 .