Decomposing Supply‐ and Demand‐Driven Inflation
提出一个框架，将通货膨胀分解为供给驱动和需求驱动两部分，并生成两个新数据序列来量化每月两者的贡献，发现需求驱动部分在经济衰退时下降，供给驱动部分跟随食品和能源价格，货币政策紧缩降低需求驱动贡献，石油供给冲击增加供给驱动贡献但减少需求驱动贡献。
Abstract The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply‐ and demand‐driven components. I generate two new data series that quantify the degree to which either demand or supply is driving inflation in a current month. The demand‐driven contribution tends to decline during recessions, while the supply‐driven contribution tends to follow food and energy prices. Monetary policy tightening acts to reduce the demand‐driven contribution of inflation. Oil‐supply shocks act to increase the supply‐driven contribution, but decrease the demand‐driven contribution of inflation.