Forecasting school enrollments in the Australian Capital Territory
研究用概率多区域人口预测模型，结合蒙特卡洛模拟和行政数据，预测澳大利亚首都领地各学校各年级的入学人数，为教育规划提供可靠区间。
Abstract School enrollment forecasts are vital for effective planning. This study introduces a probabilistic multiregional population projection model, which accounts for different components, including preschool entries, migration, grade progression, and graduations. Using different distributions with a cohort component projection and Monte Carlo simulation, this paper forecasts student enrollments for each school and academic year level in the Australian Capital Territory based on the annual record-level administrative data. In the in-sample validation tests, the model’s overall performance is robust, and the probabilistic design offers reliable prediction intervals reflecting the variation in observed values. The paper ends with a discussion on the importance of prediction intervals for informing school planning.