Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment
通过对在线银行散户投资者的调查和实地实验，研究关于股市自相关性的信念如何影响实际投资决策，并发现告知历史自相关性接近零会改变投资者的信念和后续股票购买行为。
Abstract We survey retail investors at an online bank to study how beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals’ beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to market movements. We inform half of our respondents that, historically, the autocorrelation was close to zero, which causes them to update their perceived current autocorrelation and return expectations. The treatment shifts respondents’ equity purchases during the COVID-19 crash months later in the direction implied by the intervention. Our results provide causal evidence about the drivers of disagreement and trade in asset markets.