Decarbonising Swedish maritime transport: Scenario analyses of climate policy instruments
开发了一个情景建模工具，分析欧盟排放交易体系和FuelEU Maritime法规等政策工具对瑞典海运业转向无化石燃料的影响，发现需要较强的价格信号才能显著改变船东的投资选择。
To analyse the future transition towards fossil-free fuels in the Swedish maritime transport sector, this study develops a scenario modelling tool to assess implications of policy instruments, such as the European Union Emissions Trading System and the FuelEU Maritime regulation. Using data for individual ships and their operational patterns, the model estimates the lowest-cost fuel option for shipowners in different scenarios and calculates the resulting annual fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analyses indicate that policy instruments have the potential to affect shipowners’ investment choices, but that relatively strong price signals are required for significant effects to arise. Battery-electric propulsion is most common for passenger ferries, ropax ships, and small passenger cruises, while fishing vessels and service ships typically choose conventional fuels across all scenarios. Choices are found to vary between ship segments and scenarios, emphasising the need to consider ship-specific data when analysing effects of policy instruments.