Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals
研究发现，人们收到信息后调整信念的程度取决于信息强度：弱信号导致过度推断，强信号导致不足推断，这一模式在实验、体育博彩和金融市场中均得到验证。
Abstract When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is the strength of the information. Based on a model in which people know which direction to update in, but not exactly how much to update, we hypothesize that people will overinfer from weak signals and underinfer from strong signals. We then test this hypothesis across four different environments: abstract experiments, a naturalistic experiment, sports betting markets, and financial markets. In each environment, our consistent and robust finding is overinference from weak signals and underinference from strong signals. Our framework and findings can help harmonize apparently contradictory results from the experimental and empirical literatures.