Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
研究发现股市对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应存在“邻近惩罚”：离乌克兰越近的国家，战争爆发四周内股票回报越低，其中三分之二由贸易联系解释，剩余部分归因于军事灾难风险。
Abstract We identify a “proximity penalty” in the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the closer countries are to Ukraine, the lower their equity returns in a four‐week window around the start of the war. This result holds even at the firm level within Ukraine's neighbors. Trade linkages explain two‐thirds of the proximity penalty. We attribute the remainder—1.1 percentage points in equity returns per 1,000 km of extra distance—to military disaster risk. Evidence from other financial data, geopolitical risk indicators, and aid flow statistics supports the relevance of military tail risk as a spillover channel.