当回归因子随机时,最小二乘推断对未知相关结构的误差相关具有稳健性

With random regressors, least squares inference is robust to correlated errors with unknown correlation structure

Biometrika · 2024
被引 3
ABS 4

中文导读

研究表明,当回归因子随机时,即使误差存在未知的相关结构,线性回归的最小二乘推断仍然有效,且误差相关在弱信号下甚至能增强检验功效。

Abstract

Abstract Linear regression is arguably the most widely used statistical method. With fixed regressors and correlated errors, the conventional wisdom is to modify the variance-covariance estimator to accommodate the known correlation structure of the errors. We depart from existing literature by showing that with random regressors, linear regression inference is robust to correlated errors with unknown correlation structure. The existing theoretical analyses for linear regression are no longer valid because even the asymptotic normality of the least squares coefficients breaks down in this regime. We first prove the asymptotic normality of the t statistics by establishing their Berry–Esseen bounds based on a novel probabilistic analysis of self-normalized statistics. We then study the local power of the corresponding t tests and show that, perhaps surprisingly, error correlation can even enhance power in the regime of weak signals. Overall, our results show that linear regression is applicable more broadly than the conventional theory suggests, and they further demonstrate the value of randomization for ensuring robustness of inference.

线性回归计量经济学统计推断稳健性