Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation
利用个人信用记录数据，研究发现抵押贷款利率锁定每降低1个百分点，搬家率下降9%，2022-2024年间下降16%，且这种效应不对称，同时抑制了自雇就业流动和对远距离就业机会的反应。
ABSTRACT We study the impact of rising mortgage rates on mobility and labor reallocation. Using individual‐level credit record data and variation in the timing of mortgage origination, we show that a 1 percentage point decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 9% overall and 16% between 2022 and 2024, and this relationship is asymmetric. Mortgage lock‐in also dampens flows in and out of self‐employment and the responsiveness to shocks to nearby employment opportunities that require moving, measured as wage growth within a 50‐ to 150‐mile ring and instrumented with a shift‐share instrument.