Logistics project risk response decision-making for global supply chain resilience and agility: an optimised case-based reasoning
针对物流项目风险应对决策中项目相互依赖、有限历史信息和风险关联等挑战，提出结合DEMATEL和分层序数优先法的优化案例推理方法，通过数值示例验证其对提升供应链韧性与敏捷性的有效性。
Logistics projects are critical to the functioning of the global supply chains (GSC), encountering various disruptions and risks. Sound Risk Response Decisions (RRDs) on logistics projects are imperative to ensure the GSC’s resilience and agility. Besides risk correlations, Project Interdependencies (PIs) and Limited Historical Information (LHI) impede RRDs. To address these challenges, an optimised Case-Based Reasoning combining the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Stratified Ordinal Priority Approach (SOPA) is proposed. Risks are categorised as referable and non-referable based on LHI using the Jaccard similarity. The strategies for referable risks are derived from similar cases retrieved through the weights of risks and project attributes and three similarities considering PIs. SOPA is developed to find weights with the Interdependent Uncertain Events (IUEs). DEMATEL is employed to access risk centrality degree similarity considering PIs and risk correlations. Expert input is sought for non-referable risk strategies. An optimisation model incorporating secondary risk correlations is built to generate strategies for all risks. The proposed approach is validated through a numerical example. Analysis informs that (1) PIs, LHI, and IUEs are necessary for sound RRDs; (2) decision outcomes are sensitive to logistics project managers who are risk-averse or exhibit moderate consideration of secondary risks.