Measuring the U.S. monetary noise shocks
研究发现货币基本面冲击（与预期一致的外生变化）能稳定产出和通胀，而噪声冲击（未实现的错误信念）会加剧经济波动，且金融摩擦会放大这两类冲击的预期效应。
Abstract Agents' beliefs regarding future monetary policy changes influence their current decisions. However, these expectations may not always materialize in the future. This study shows that the monetary fundamental shocks (exogenous changes consistent with expectations) stabilize output and inflation, while the noise shocks (biased beliefs that fail to be realized in the future) increase economic fluctuations. Moreover, factors that amplify financial frictions—the spread between the capital return of entrepreneurs and the risk‐free interest rate of a central bank—can increase anticipation effects associated with these two types of monetary policy shocks.