The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections
使用1960年至2022年的实时数据，评估日本财政当局收入预测的效率，发现一年期预测效率不高，但基于结果调整可显著提高准确性。
This paper evaluates the efficiency of the Japanese fiscal authority’s revenue projections using real-time data from 1960 to 2022. While their one-year-ahead projections are not efficient, their accuracy can be significantly improved by adjusting the forecasts based on the results.