The Life Cycle of Systemic Risk and Crises
提出系统性风险与危机的生命周期视角，整合多种观点，清晰组织理论与实证证据，说明风险如何在繁荣期积累、在危机中实现，并影响后续周期，旨在提升理解、指导研究与政策分析。
Abstract We present a life cycle view of systemic risk and crises that incorporates and synthesizes a number of views and organizes the theoretical and empirical research evidence in a clear fashion. We illustrate how systemic risks build during the boom, are realized during the following crisis, and are well addressed or not in the aftermath, which helps determine how well or poorly the following cycle will likely evolve. We aim to improve current understanding of systemic risk and crises, the roles of the different economic segments of society, highlight key issues of measurement, and provide guidance for future academic research and policy analysis. We address several controversies—the outsized role of the banking sector in creating and resolving systemic risks, its exclusive role in systemic risk measurement, and seemingly irrational behavior in which the same or similar costly mistakes are repeated every cycle.