Assessing the Future of Oil and Gas Production and Local Government Revenue in Five Western US Basins
研究了美国西部五个盆地未来油气产量和政府收入如何随油价和气候政策变化，发现产量和收入关系非线性，长期基金为学区提供财政缓冲。
Oil and gas production is a major source of public revenue in many US regions, but uncertainty exists over the future of demand for hydrocarbons. We model how oil and gas production and related government revenue change in five western US basins depending on future oil and natural gas prices under three scenarios of climate policy ambition. We find that the Green River and San Juan basins experience production declines across all scenarios, while production in the Bakken, Permian, and Powder River basins are more dependent on prices. Government revenue generally follows the direction of production, but these relationships are not directly proportional. Under the lower price scenarios, revenue declines more steeply than production because it reflects both production and prices, which both decline. Long-term permanent funds, which are in place across all the states we examine, provide an important fiscal cushion for school districts, their primary beneficiary.