Fiscal Policy, International Spillovers, and Endogenous Productivity
利用G7国家面板数据，通过外部工具变量识别美国财政冲击，发现其导致其他G7国家产出和消费显著上升，并提升私人部门劳动生产率，同时用两国新凯恩斯模型解释了这些效应。
Abstract The paper presents empirical evidence on the international effects of U.S. fiscal policy from structural vector autoregressions identified through external instruments in a panel setting for the G7 countries. An exogenous increase in U.S. government spending is estimated to produce sizable positive responses of output and consumption in the rest of the G7 countries, both about half as large as their domestic U.S. counterparts, while strongly depreciating the U.S. terms of trade and lowering the U.S. trade balance and short‐run real interest rates. Moreover, fiscal shocks are estimated to have a strongly positive impact on hourly labor productivity in the private sector. We solve a two‐country New Keynesian model in closed form and show that a low cost elasticity of varying technology utilization can simultaneously explain the positive productivity, consumption, and international spillover effects as well as the real depreciation resulting from expansionary U.S. government spending shocks.