Can Random Friends Seed More Buzz and Adoption? Leveraging the Friendship Paradox
研究了基于友谊悖论的种子选择策略，在无需完整网络数据的情况下，通过随机朋友找到更中心的节点，提升口碑传播和产品采用率，对营销人员设计低成本推广方案有参考价值。
A critical element of word of mouth (WOM) or buzz marketing is to identify seeds, often central actors with high degree in the social network. Seed identification typically requires data on the relevant network structure, which is often unavailable. We examine the impact of WOM seeding strategies motivated by the friendship paradox, which can obtain more central nodes without knowing network structure. Higher degree nodes may be less effective as seeds if these nodes communicate less with neighbors or are less persuasive when they communicate; therefore, whether friendship paradox–motivated seeding strategies increase or reduce WOM and adoption remains an empirical question. We develop and estimate a model of WOM and adoption using data on microfinance adoption across village social networks in India. Counterfactuals show that the proposed strategies with limited seeds are about 13%–30% more effective in increasing adoption relative to random seeding. These strategies are also on average 5%–11% more effective than the firm’s leader seeding strategy. We also find these strategies are relatively more effective when we have fewer seeds. This paper was accepted by Juanjuan Zhang, marketing. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.4991 .