Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes
基于德国制造业企业数据，研究发现企业税上调后，投资低于原计划的企业比例平均增加3个百分点，经济衰退时该效应翻倍。
This paper estimates the causal effect of corporate tax hikes on firm investment based on more than 1,400 local tax changes. By observing planned and realized investment volumes in a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we can study how tax hikes induce firms to revise their investment decisions. On average, the share of firms that invest less than previously planned increases by 3 percentage points after a tax hike. This effect is twice as large during recessions.