Did Monetary Policy Kill the Phillips Curve? Some Simple Arithmetics
用新凯恩斯理论和SVAR模型分解美国宏观数据，发现菲利普斯曲线斜率稳定，但需求曲线变平，货币政策对通胀的坚定承诺解释了通胀与经济活动脱节。
Abstract An apparent disconnect has taken place between inflation and economic activity in the pre-COVID US economy, causing some to believe that the Phillips curve has flattened. We argue that this view may be premature. Using New Keynesian theory and estimated SVAR models, we decompose fluctuations in US macro data into the components driven by demand and supply disturbances, and confront the inflation disconnect with some simple arithmetics. This exercise confirms a relatively stable Phillips curve slope while the demand curve has flattened substantially. Our results are consistent with a shift towards firmer monetary policy commitment to inflation stability.