Globalisation, Financialisation and Endogenous Thresholds for Premature Deindustrialisation
研究一大组发达、新兴和发展中经济体的过早去工业化模式及决定因素，重点考察国际金融一体化、资本账户开放和金融化等被忽视因素的影响，并采用非参数核回归和内生阈值方法分析收入与工业化的关系。
ABSTRACT We investigate the pattern and determinants of premature deindustrialisation (PD) for a large panel of advanced, emerging and developing economies. We consider the impacts of international financial integration (de facto financial globalisation), capital account openness (de jure financial globalisation) and financialisation which are often neglected by the literature along with the conventional determinants of industrialisation. The recent literature often employs conventional fixed‐effects panel data estimation procedures to estimate and test the postulated inverted‐U relationship between manufacturing value‐added share in GDP and real income. We employ non‐parametric kernel regression to identify the pattern between these variables. In addition, this study analyses the determinants of industrialisation not only by employing the generalised method of moments procedure but also the recent methods allowing to estimate endogenous thresholds. In this context, we also examine whether income and globalisation provide endogenous thresholds for the effect of income on the processes of industrialisation and PD for our samples.