Arbitrage-based recovery
提出一个仅需单一到期日Arrow-Debreu价格即可恢复概率分布的新定理，并用26年标普500期权数据验证其能正确恢复月度收益分布。
We develop a novel recovery theorem based on no-arbitrage principles. To implement our Arbitrage-Based Recovery Theorem empirically, one needs to observe the Arrow–Debreu prices only for one single maturity. We perform several different density tests and mean prediction tests using more than 26 years of S&P 500 options data, and we find evidence that our method can correctly recover the probability distribution of the S&P 500 index return on a monthly horizon, despite the presence of a non-trivial permanent SDF component.