Conformal prediction with local weights: randomization enables robust guarantees
提出随机局部化共形预测方法，在有限样本下构建分布自由的预测区间，提供放松的局部覆盖保证，并通过模拟和真实数据实验验证其有效性。
Abstract In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with distribution-free guarantees, but these guarantees only ensure marginal coverage: the probability of coverage is averaged over both the training and test data, meaning that there might be substantial undercoverage within certain subpopulations. Instead, ideally we would want to have local coverage guarantees that hold for each possible value of the test point’s features. While the impossibility of achieving pointwise local coverage is well established in the literature, many variants of conformal prediction algorithm show favourable local coverage properties empirically. Relaxing the definition of local coverage can allow for a theoretical understanding of this empirical phenomenon. We propose randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP), a method that builds on localized CP and weighted CP techniques to return prediction intervals that are not only marginally valid but also offer relaxed local coverage guarantees and validity under covariate shift. Through a series of simulations and real data experiments, we validate these coverage guarantees of RLCP while comparing it with the other local conformal prediction methods.