Understanding changes in traffic demand during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games
利用高速公路面板数据，通过双重差分法评估了2020年东京奥运会期间收费附加和其他因素对交通需求的影响，发现收费附加使工作日和周末/节假日的小汽车需求分别下降25.0%和36.8%，而其他出行需求管理策略在周末有效但工作日反而导致需求增加4.6%。
This paper evaluated the effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on traffic demand on the Metropolitan expressway . We constructed panel data for both passenger and freight vehicles’ demand using longitudinal disaggregated trip records from the Metropolitan expressway. Subsequently, we established a demand function and used a difference-in-differences method to individually estimate the impacts of toll surcharges and other Olympics-related factors by leveraging the fact that the toll surcharges were not applied to freight vehicles. The results indicate that toll surcharges resulted in a decrease of 25.0% for weekdays and 36.8% for weekends/holidays in passenger vehicle demand on the Metropolitan expressway. The estimated toll elasticities are 0.345 for weekdays and 0.615 for weekends/holidays, respectively. Notably, analysis of the Olympics-related factor demonstrated that travel demand management (TDM) strategies effectively curbed demand on weekends/holidays with a reduction of 2.9% in traffic demand. However, on weekdays, induced demand surpassed the reduction of demand by other TDM strategies than tolling, resulting in a 4.6% increase in traffic demand. Additionally, We developed a zone-based demand function and investigate the spatial heterogeneity in toll elasticity. Our findings revealed small heterogeneity for weekdays (0.283 to 0.509) and large heterogeneity for weekends/holidays (0.484 to 0.935).