Electoral Turnovers
研究了1946至2018年全球总统和议会选举中执政党或候选人未能连任的选举更替现象，发现更替能改善经济表现、人类发展和民主质量，并探讨其通过影响领导人特征、政策决策、减少腐败和增强问责制的作用机制。
Abstract In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, we show that turnovers improve several measures of country performance. To explain these positive effects, we explore how electoral turnovers affect leader characteristics, shape policy decisions, reduce perceived corruption, and foster accountability.