Bayesian optimization for personalized dose-finding trials with combination therapies
针对早期联合治疗剂量探索试验中样本量小、参数多、剂量反应面可能非单调的难题，提出用贝叶斯优化方法寻找标准及个性化最优剂量组合，模拟显示在患者异质性时个性化方法优势明显。
Abstract Identification of optimal dose combinations in early-phase dose-finding trials is challenging, due to the trade-off between precisely estimating the many parameters required to flexibly model the possibly nonmonotonic dose-response surface, and the small sample sizes in early-phase trials. This difficulty is even more pertinent in the context of personalized dose-finding, where patient characteristics are used to identify tailored optimal dose combinations. To overcome these challenges, we propose the use of Bayesian optimization for finding optimal dose combinations in standard (one size fits all) and personalized multi-agent dose-finding trials. Bayesian optimization is a method for estimating the global optima of expensive-to-evaluate objective functions. The objective function is approximated by a surrogate model, commonly a Gaussian process, paired with a sequential design strategy to select the next point via an acquisition function. This work is motivated by an industry-sponsored problem, where the focus is on optimizing a dual-agent therapy in a setting featuring minimal toxicity. To compare the performance of the standard and personalized methods under this setting, simulation studies are performed for a variety of scenarios. Our study concludes that taking a personalized approach is highly beneficial in the presence of heterogeneity.