The effect of trade liberalization on marriage and fertility: evidence from Indian census
利用1971-2011年印度五次人口普查数据，研究发现1991年贸易自由化对城市地区年轻女性婚姻率有正向影响，但对农村地区无影响；关税削减主要降低了农村地区的生育率。
Abstract Using a district-level panel constructed from five waves of decennial Indian censuses covering 1971–2011, we examine the medium-term (1991–2001) and long-term (1991–2011) impacts of the 1991 Indian trade liberalization on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15–34. We exploit the fact that countrywide tariff reductions varied across industries creating exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial employment composition of the district. We find heterogeneous results across urban and rural areas. We find that urban areas of the districts that experienced larger tariff cuts experienced relative increases in marriage rates compared to the districts that experienced smaller tariff cuts. Tariff cuts positively affect workforce participation among both young men and women in urban areas. However, there is no impact of tariff cuts on the marriage rate or workforce participation among young population (15–34) in rural areas. In contrast, tariff cuts reduced fertility rates mostly in rural areas.