Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: the Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness
利用Berea面板研究的独特数据，研究了30岁前的生育结果及大学毕业后不久对生育结果的信念，发现24岁未婚且无伴侣的人对生育概率过于乐观，而已婚者信念准确；吸引力对女性生育信念和结果至关重要，但对男性影响不大。
Abstract Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provide new evidence about fertility outcomes before age thirty and beliefs about these outcomes elicited soon after college graduation. Comparing outcomes and beliefs yields a measure of belief accuracy. Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age twenty-four are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs. Novel attractiveness measures are central for understanding fertility beliefs and outcomes for females, but not for males. Marriage is a mechanism that is relevant for understanding differences in beliefs, outcomes and misperceptions across relationship and attractiveness groups.