Too much, too soon? Early-maturing maize varieties as drought escape strategy in Malawi
研究了马拉维早熟玉米品种在不同水分胁迫时间下的表现，发现其仅在晚季干旱时优于中晚熟品种，而在中季干旱时表现最差，为品种推荐提供了依据。
• Early-maturing varieties increase drought tolerance under suitable conditions. • In Malawi, early-maturing varieties are partially adopted in unsuitable locations. • When water stress is limited to the late-season, early-maturing varieties constitute the best variety choice. • When water stress starts from mid-season, early-maturing varieties are highly unsuitable. • Variety recommendations can be developed based on the typical timing of water stress. Adopting early-maturing maize varieties can substantially increase yield and yield stability in suitable environments. Actionable recommendations that specify where early-maturing varieties can be suitably applied are lacking across low-income countries. We found for maize in Malawi that varieties with longer maturity duration provide on average the highest yield. However, if water stress occurs, we found that its timing determines which seed variety performs best. If water stress conditions are confined to the late season, early-maturing varieties escape drought and perform better than medium- and late-maturing varieties. Instead, if water stress conditions start already from mid-season, early-maturing varieties perform worst. Our results demonstrate that the typical seasonal timing of water stress can serve as a suitable criterion for recommending where to adopt early-maturing varieties. Finally, we propose an integrated research framework that complements our econometric analysis and allows to derive actionable variety suitability recommendations at the country level.