Evidence and determinants of rural crime victimization in Tanzania
基于坦桑尼亚农村786户家庭的面板数据，发现2016年和2018年犯罪受害率分别高达37%和47%，失业率高和洪水等天气冲击会增加受害风险。
• Rural crime victimization, especially in form of theft, is a serious problem in rural areas in Sub Saharan Africa. • Victimization rates in rural Tanzania are relatively high, amounting to 37 % and 47 % in 2016 and 2018. • Living in a rural region with high levels of unemployment is positively correlated with the likelihood of victimization. • Exposure to weather shocks such as floods is positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. • Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather shocks. Rural crime victimization, especially in form of theft, is a serious problem in rural areas in Sub Saharan Africa as it may undermine their sustainable development. Using the case of Tanzania, we investigate the evidence of crime and analyze the factors which determine victimization. Based on a panel dataset of 786 households from rural Tanzania, we find relatively high victimization rates of 37 % and 47 % in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The random-effects and pooled logit models reveal that living in a rural region with high levels of unemployment is positively correlated with the likelihood of victimization. Moreover, exposure to weather shocks such as floods is positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. We conclude that rural crime victimization requires attention due to its high incidence in Tanzania. Improving job opportunities especially for the youth in rural Tanzania is expected to reduce the likelihood of victimization. Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather shocks.