Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency misalignments
基于1973-2019年170个国家的数据，分析汇率失调与经济增长的关系，发现货币低估在发展中国家能刺激增长，但受发展水平和低估程度限制，过度低估可能转为不利增长。
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in developing countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation.