Long-term employment effects of the minimum wage in Germany: New data and estimators
研究了2015年德国引入最低工资及其后续上调对区域就业的长期影响，发现总就业小幅下降0.5%，其中边缘就业显著减少2.4%。
We investigate the long-term effects of the introduction of the German minimum wage in 2015 and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using comprehensive survey data, we are able to measure the regional bite of the minimum wage in 2014, just before its introduction, as well as in 2018, before it was raised substantially in several steps. The introduction mainly affected the labour market in East Germany, while the minimum wage increases increasingly affected low-wage regions in West Germany, with about one third of regions changing their (binary) treatment status between 2014 and 2018. We use different specifications and extensions of the canonical difference-in-differences approach, as well as a set of new estimators that allow unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results show a small negative effect on total dependent employment of 0.5%, driven by a significant reduction in marginal employment of 2.4%. The extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage increases, as well as stronger negative effects for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in both periods. • We study the long-term effects of the statutory minimum wage in Germany. • We use new estimators for a staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. • Our results show a small negative effect on total dependent employment of 0.5%. • The result is driven by a significant reduction in marginal employment of 2.4%.