Expectational reference points and belief formation: Field evidence from financial analysts
利用金融分析师数据，发现预期被略微超过的分析师比预期被略微未达的分析师更乐观，且后者信念更新更强，表明预期作为参考点影响信念形成。
We test the influence of expectations as reference points in the belief formation of individuals using field data from financial analysts. We explore the premise that deviations from expectations can significantly alter people's perceptions of identical outcomes, thereby affecting their subsequent belief formation. We employ a regression discontinuity design to reveal that analysts whose forecasts were barely exceeded become discontinuously more optimistic than analysts whose forecasts were barely missed, despite having converging prior beliefs and observing the same performance signal about firm earnings. Furthermore, our analyses show that analysts whose forecasts were barely missed update their beliefs more strongly than do analysts whose forecasts were barely exceeded. We contribute to the literature by providing important field evidence indicating that expectations constitute a reference point that influences subsequent belief formation in an environment involving high stakes and expert decision-makers.