Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework
构建结构性框架，同时估计深度贸易协定对FDI的直接效应、一般均衡效应及通过贸易的间接效应，发现协定显著且不对称地促进了FDI流入与流出。
Abstract This paper quantifies the relationships between deep trade agreements and foreign direct investment (FDI). The analysis relies on a structural framework that simultaneously enables (a) estimating the direct impact of deep trade agreements on FDI, (b) translating the partial deep trade agreement estimates into general equilibrium effects on FDI, and (c) obtaining partial deep trade agreement effects on trade and quantifying the impact of deep trade agreements on FDI through trade. The effects of deep trade agreements on both trade and FDI are sizeable, positive, and statistically significant. A counterfactual analysis suggests that together with direct and indirect channels deep trade agreements have contributed to a large but asymmetric increase in inward versus outward FDI.