Do countries default in bad times? The role of alternative detrending techniques
重新评估了主权债务违约的实证证据，发现使用Hamilton（2018）提出的去趋势技术后，违约更可能发生在经济衰退期，这与标准理论模型的预测一致。
Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of “good times” defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates that, on average, defaults happen when output is close to potential. This paper reassesses the empirical evidence and shows that the detrending technique proposed by Hamilton (2018) yields results that are closer to the predictions of standard quantitative models of sovereign debt.