Searching for a just transition: Micro-level employment impacts of climate policies
研究将宏观经济模型与微观模拟结合，预测新西兰气候政策对不同行业、地区和人群的就业影响，发现煤炭、油气等行业就业下降，农业就业上升，年长、低学历及毛利工人受影响最大。
We develop and apply a modelling framework to estimate the micro-level employment impacts of climate policies in Aotearoa New Zealand. Our approach links an economy-wide model with a micro simulation module to calculate employment changes for different groups of the population across several dimensions (and combinations of dimensions), including sectoral, geospatial, demographic, and socio-economic categories. By simulating the linked modelling framework out to 2050 for proposed climate policies, we estimate which industries, workers, and jobs are expected to be most affected by these policies. Industries that experience the largest negative employment impacts include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and some manufacturing activities. Reflecting the deployment of labour-intensive abatement options, some agriculture industries experience the largest employment increases. Workers that incur a disproportionate share of the transition are older, have lower levels of education, or are Māori. Employment transitions are also concentrated in certain regions. The results and modelling tools can help the New Zealand government formulate policies to ensure a ‘just transition’ to a low carbon future. • An economy-wide model is linked to a micro data simulation module. • The tools estimate the impact of policies on workers with different characteristics • Workers disproportional impacted are older, less qualified, or Māori • The results can inform policies to ensure a just transition to a low carbon future