Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity
研究发现经典彩票异常（如概率加权和损失厌恶）在无概率的确定性任务中同样出现，且强度相当，表明这些行为更多源于复杂性错误而非真实风险偏好。
We provide evidence that classic lottery anomalies like probability weighting and loss aversion are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate deterministic, positive monetary payments that have been disaggregated to resemble lotteries. Thus, we find, e.g., apparent probability weighting in settings without probabilities and loss aversion in settings without scope for loss. Across subjects, anomalies in these deterministic tasks strongly predict the same anomalies in lotteries. These findings suggest that much of the behavior motivating our most important behavioral theories of risk derive from complexity-driven mistakes rather than true risk preferences.