Managing sudden unexpected disruptions in complex projects: the antifragility hierarchy
基于反脆弱理论，提出一个应对项目突发中断的层级框架，从稳健到反脆弱，帮助组织选择更有效的响应策略以提升项目价值。
Projects are prone to a variety of sudden unexpected disruptions across their development cycle, requiring that effective organizations develop strategies for proactively recognizing disruption likelihood and swiftly responding to these events. This paper explores a hierarchy of responses to disruption, based on Taleb’s theory of antifragile system behavior. Following this reasoning, we suggest that when faced with project disruptions, organizations need to investigate the means to trigger a ‘convex’ response that increases value through antifragile thinking. We propose an ‘antifragility hierarchy’ in which three key responses to project disruption are demonstrated, with a range of strategies available for addressing these disruptions. This hierarchy offers a novel conceptualization of responses to project disruption events, suggesting that the options available to organizations range from robust (the least effective) to antifragile (the most constructive). Finally, we offer a set of strategies for effectively responding to disruptions to promote antifragility in projects.