Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data
运用新的贝叶斯面板方法，分析美国和欧盟细分数据中菲利普斯曲线的结构性断点，发现曲线在美国行业数据和欧盟国家（尤其是较穷国家）中趋于平坦，但在经济过热时仍较陡峭。
ABSTRACT We revisit the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with structural breaks to US and EU disaggregate data. Our approach lets us estimate both the number and timing of breaks and to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns. We find evidence of a flattening for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Evidence of flattening is weaker for MSA‐level data and the wage Phillips curve. We find evidence of a kink in the Phillips curve, which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot.