How confidence heterogeneity shapes effort and performance in tournaments and contests
研究信心偏差的异质性如何影响选手在锦标赛中的相对努力投入，发现信心对均衡努力和获胜概率存在非单调效应：信心过低或过高都会导致努力低于对手，而中等信心则促使选手更努力。
This paper studies how heterogeneity in confidence biases affects players’ relative effort provision in tournaments and contests. We uncover a non-monotonic effect of confidence on equilibrium relative efforts and winning probabilities. A player with either a low or a high confidence exerts less effort than his rival at equilibrium. However, for intermediate confidence levels, the player exerts more effort than his rival.