How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?
研究1993年至2024年间地缘政治冲击期间贸易和货币政策不确定性对美国消费者信心的影响，发现贸易不确定性恶化信心而货币政策不确定性稳定情绪，对政策制定者有参考价值。
• This article examines how trade and monetary policy uncertainty during geopolitical shocks affects US consumer confidence. • We show that trade and monetary uncertainties significantly influence US consumer confidence during major geopolitical events. • The resolution of trade and monetary uncertainties is crucial to economic resilience and consumer confidence. This study examines the impact of trade and monetary policy uncertainty during geopolitical shocks on U.S. consumer confidence. Using monthly data from January 1993 to June 2024, we find that both trade and monetary policy uncertainties have significantly shaped U.S. consumer confidence during major geopolitical events. Moreover, trade policy uncertainty significantly worsens consumer confidence during heightened geopolitical tension, while monetary policy uncertainty tends to stabilize sentiment. Our findings suggest that policymakers should implement clear and consistent trade policies during geopolitical unrest and effectively use monetary policy to reassure consumers. Ultimately, this research underscores the importance of addressing trade and monetary uncertainties to bolster economic resilience and enhance consumer confidence in challenging times.