The winds of inequalities: How hurricanes affect inequalities at the macro level
基于114个国家1995-2014年数据，研究发现飓风对不平等的影响取决于国家人均GDP水平，最贫困国家在飓风后可支配不平等反而下降，而高收入国家则呈现先降后升的“重建更好”效应。
While the consequences of natural disasters are relatively well studied, little is known about their macroeconomic impact on inequality. Following Yang (2008), we use an exogenous hurricane index, considering the average “affectedness” of individuals, based on meteorological data. Our empirical approach uses local projection (Jordà, 2005) to measure the cumulative impact of hurricanes on pre- and post-transfer Gini indices (Solt, 2020) five years after the hurricane event for a sample of 114 countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that the impact of hurricanes on inequality, is conditional on the level of a country’s per capita GDP. In particular, the poorest countries tend to experience a reduction in disposable inequality following a hurricane. This study highlights the possible presence of a Schumpeterian effect in high income countries, where they experience a decline in the pre-redistribution Gini in the first few years as capital at the top of the income distribution is destroyed. Subsequently, the pre-tax and transfer Gini rises, reflecting a possible “build-back-better” mechanism as individuals at the top of the income distribution increase their income from capital via reconstruction. In the case of the post-redistribution Gini, we observe a decrease in the first years after a hurricane, underlining the positive impact of redistribution. We identify potential channels such as ODA, remittances and subsidies through which hurricanes may reduce inequality in these countries. • This macroeconomic study examines the medium-term impact of hurricanes on pre- and post-redistribution inequality. • We use an exogenous hurricane measurement based on meteorological data. • Our results suggest that hurricanes have a heterogeneous effect on inequality, depending on a country’s development and democracy levels. • We highlight a Schumpeterian effect in developed countries: the richest often benefit from a “build-back-better” recovery. • We identify several transmission channels that reduce disposable inequalities: ODA, remittances, and social transfers.