On Optimal Currency Areas: Common Shocks Versus Common Persistence of Shocks
本文在Barro-Gordon框架下论证，除了冲击的相关性，冲击的共同持续性也是最优货币区的重要标准，并利用序列相关共同特征检验评估潜在欧元区国家与欧元区的共同周期模式。
ABSTRACT The Optimal Currency Area (OCA) literature has been focusing on the co‐movement of business cycle shocks as a key policy criterion. We document in a simple Barro–Gordon framework that, in addition to a high correlation of shocks, a common persistence of shocks is a relevant OCA criterion. The model provides a conceptual underpinning for empirical studies that have used the Serial Correlation Common Features (SCCF) test to evaluate common currency areas. We apply the SCCF test to a set of countries that could potentially introduce the Euro and find for the period from 1999 (Q1) to 2019 (Q3) only little evidence that the acceding countries share a common cyclical response pattern with the European Monetary Union (EMU) aggregate.