Local knowledge, formal evidence, and policy decisions
通过离散选择实验，发现政策制定者愿意接受估计效果小5.0个百分点的项目，只要它得到地方专家推荐；也偏好来自其他地区的证据，但需估计效果高5.8个百分点。地方证据权重很大。
How do policymakers value advice from local experts versus formal evidence from impact evaluations when making policy decisions? Using a discrete choice experiment conducted in collaboration with the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, we show that policymakers were willing to accept a program that had a 5.0 percentage point smaller estimated effect on enrollment rates if it were recommended by a local expert. They also preferred programs supported by evidence from a different region over programs supported by local evaluations only if the former had a 5.8 percentage point higher estimated impact. These premiums are large, surpassing the effects of many programs aimed at improving enrollment rates. This highlights the substantial weight that policymakers place on local evidence. • Policymakers and policy practitioners prefer programs with a local impact evaluation. • They also prefer programs recommended by local experts. • These preferences often outweigh differences in estimated treatment effects.