Responding to natural disasters: What do monthly remittance data tell us?
利用意大利向81个发展中国家的月度汇款数据，研究发现汇款在自然灾害发生后立即显著增加，持续3-4个月后恢复，且无跨期替代效应，对灾害类型和接收国特征有异质性反应。
Identifying the insurance role of remittances against natural disasters through aggregate annual data is challenging due to the dynamics of remittances and disasters throughout the year and possible intertemporal substitution effects. In an event-study setting based on monthly remittance flows from Italy to 81 developing countries for 2005-2015, we investigate their dynamics in the aftermath of disasters. We find that monthly remittances positively respond to natural disasters in migrants’ home countries. The response is immediate and significant up to 3-4 months after the event. Later on remittances return to pre-disaster levels but there is no evidence of intertemporal substitution. We observe some anticipation effects, which could be related to the recurrent nature of some types of disasters. The intensity and timing of remittances’ responsiveness are heterogeneous according to the nature of disasters, to the receiving country’s characteristics, and to migrants’ socio-economic conditions in the host country. • We study how remittances respond to natural disasters in migrants’ home countries. • We adopt an event-study setting based on official monthly remittance data from Italy. • The response is immediate and significant up to 3-4 months after the event. • Due to such dynamics, monthly data allow for better identification than annual data. • Intensity and timing of response are heterogeneous along several dimensions.