Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era
利用大萧条时期金本位调整的新月度城市数据，研究显示美国出口城市受双边汇率变动显著影响，贸易渠道加深了大萧条并推动了1933年经济复苏。
Abstract Flexible exchange rates can facilitate price adjustments that buffer macroeconomic shocks. We test this hypothesis using adjustments to the gold standard during the Great Depression. Using novel monthly data on city-level economic activity, sectoral employment, and export data, we show that American exporting cities were significantly affected by changes in bilateral exchange rates. We calibrate a general equilibrium model to obtain aggregate effects from cross-sectional estimates. We show that the trade channel deepened the Great Depression and was a key driver of the economic recovery in 1933.