Demography and income in the 21st century: a long-run perspective
本文分析了21世纪劳动年龄人口比例变化对全球收入分布的影响，发现该比例每提高1%可使收入增长率提高0.173个百分点，并预测收入将从欧美和中国转向南亚和非洲。
Abstract The world faces massive demographic changes in the 21st century. We analyse the impact of changes in the share of the working-age population for the global income distribution. First, the historical impact of demography on economic growth indicates that a 1% higher share of the working-age population in the total population results in a 0.173 percentage points higher income growth rate. Second, we use United Nations population projections to predict income changes for the remainder of this century. Third, we show how the share of income shifts away from Europe, North America and China towards South Asia and Africa, such that the current global economic powers will see their influence on world affairs decline.