Parental Leave, Worker Substitutability and Firms’ Employment
基于德国雇主-雇员匹配数据，研究育儿假缺勤对中小企业就业和工资的影响，发现企业会提前招聘替代人员，但延长育儿假并未对企业产生长期负面影响。
Abstract Motherhood and parental leave are frequent causes of worker absences and employment interruptions, yet little is known about their effects on firms. Based on linked employer-employee data from Germany, we examine how parental leave absences affect small- and medium-sized firms. We show that they anticipate the absence with replacement hirings in the six months before childbirth. A 2007 parental leave reform extending leave absences reduces firm-level employment and total wages up to three years after childbirth, driven by firms with few internal substitutes for the absent mother. However, we do not find longer-term effects on firms’ employment, wage bills or likelihood to shut down. The reform led to an increase in replacement hirings, but firms did not respond to longer expected absences of mothers by subsequently hiring fewer young women. Overall, our findings show that anticipated, extended parental leave does not have a lasting impact on firms.