Analysis of factors affecting pedestrian safety for the elderly and identification of vulnerable areas in Seoul
研究利用首尔老年人交通事故数据和MaxEnt模型，识别高风险区域及关键因素（如地方道路、老年人口比例），发现人行道比例增加可降低风险，而高风险区常缺乏道路管理资金，为优先投资提供依据。
• Elderly pedestrian accidents in South Korea occur 7.7 times more frequently than in OECD countries, posing a major safety issue. • Using MaxEnt and accident data, the study identifies high-risk areas in Seoul and predicts future elderly pedestrian safety risks. • Key factors include local roads, elderly population proportion, land-use mix, and commercial areas with mixed traffic conditions. • Increasing sidewalk ratios effectively reduces risks, while crosswalk and silver zone safety require better awareness and enforcement. • High-risk areas often lack road management funding; findings guide targeted investments to enhance elderly pedestrian safety. Walking is the primary means of mobility and a daily activity for the elderly. Despite the need to ensure pedestrian safety given their physical limitations, elderly pedestrian traffic accidents in South Korea occur at a rate 7.7 times higher than in OECD member countries. In preparation for an aging society, there is a growing need to create a safe walking environment for the elderly. This study focuses on Seoul, analyzing the factors that compromise pedestrian safety for the elderly and identifying the characteristics of vulnerable areas. By using elderly pedestrian traffic accident data provided by the Road Traffic Authority and applying factors influencing accident occurrence to the MaxEnt model, the study identified priority elements for ensuring pedestrian safety. Additionally, the study predicted the regional vulnerability of elderly pedestrian accidents with the increasing elderly population in the future and reviewed possible measures to mitigate the risks. The study indicates that areas where elderly pedestrian safety is vulnerable tend to have lower budget allocations for road management, suggesting a need for future policy support. The prediction of elderly pedestrian accident occurrences through this study is expected to be useful in identifying areas with vulnerable pedestrian safety in Seoul, which can be utilized in prioritizing road improvement projects.