Leader value added: Assessing the growth contribution of individual national leaders
本摘要源自该文的 NBER 工作论文版（2020），正式发表版可能有调整。
Previous literature suggests that leaders matter for growth \nin general. This paper asks which leaders matter and develops \na methodology to estimate the growth contribution of \nindividual leaders and calculate its precision. The findings \nshow that few leaders have statistically significant contributions; \nit is difficult to know who is good for growth and \nwho is not. The paper also finds that the most intuitive \nestimate of a leader’s contribution—the average growth rate \nduring tenure—is largely useless for measuring his or her \ntrue contribution. Consequently, many leaders with statistically \nsignificant growth effects are surprises. Moreover, \nleaders in non-democratic countries are no more likely to \nbe statistically significant than leaders in democratic ones.